by Michael Klare and Tom Engelhardt
. . . At the beginning of this century, many energy analysts were convinced that we were at
the edge of the arrival of "peak oil"; a peak, that is, in the output of petroleum in
which planetary reserves would be exhausted long before the demand for oil disappeared,
triggering a global economic crisis. As a result of advances in drilling technology,
however, the supply of oil has continued to grow, while demand has unexpectedly begun to
stall. This can be traced both to slowing economic growth globally and to an
accelerating "green revolution" in which the planet will be transitioning to non-carbon
fuel sources. With most nations now committed to measures aimed at reducing emissions of
greenhouse gases under the just-signed Paris climate accord, the demand for oil is
likely to experience significant declines in the years ahead. In other words, global oil
demand will peak long before supplies begin to run low, creating a monumental challenge
for the oil-producing countries.
This is no theoretical construct. It's reality itself. Net consumption of oil in the
advanced industrialized nations has already dropped from 50 million barrels per day in
2005 to 45 million barrels in 2014. Further declines are in store as strict fuel
efficiency standards for the production of new vehicles and other climate-related
measures take effect, the price of solar and wind power continues to fall, and other
alternative energy sources come on line. While the demand for oil does continue to rise
in the developing world, even there it's not climbing at rates previously taken for
granted. With such countries also beginning to impose tougher constraints on carbon
emissions, global consumption is expected to reach a peak and begin an inexorable
decline. According to experts Thijs Van de Graaf and Aviel Verbruggen, overall world
peak demand could be reached as early as 2020. . . .
FULL TEXT
"Energo-fascism: The Global Energy Race and Its
Consequences," The Wisdom Fund, January 16, 2007
Michael Klare, "Big Oil's Collapse And The Birth
Of A New World Order," salon.com, January 14, 2016
Jonathan Rutherford, "What's really driving the global economic
crisis is net energy decline," medium.com, August 2, 2017